China's Xi Jinping takes his first step to challenge Modi's rising clout in South Asia

Wednesday is an important day for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What makes it important is because of what's happening in neighbouring China.

While Modi is seen as a brave leader who can ignore checks and balances for bold reforms, he is also seen as a strong-arm leader outside India, especially after India’s surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India’s challenge to China during the Doklam standoff only amplified this persona.

On the backfoot after the border skirmish, Xi Jinping is trying to turn the page at the critical once-in-five years party congress of the top leaders of the Communist Party of China. Considered China's most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping or even Mao Zedong, Xi will try to use the congress to lay the foundation to stay atop the 89-million-strong party even longer than the normal 10 years.

That would break the unwritten two-term limit accepted by his immediate predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao -- who were by Xi's side at the congress -- and end the era of "collective leadership" aimed at preventing the emergence of another Mao.

The congress is expected to cement Xi's authority that will further strengthen his power to pursue an aggressive policy abroad. The 19th edition of the congress assumes significance for Xi as he will have a far greater ability to choose his colleagues than he had in the last congress held in 2012.

It is because of this the developments in Beijing will be closely watched in Delhi’s policy circles.

Another term for Xi does not augur well for Modi.

First, China has lately started asserting in the world economic sphere, especially with its One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) project. OBOR needles India as it passes through Indian territory occupied by Pakistan. A stronger and more confident Xi will not only find a new zeal to increase China’s global economic clout but can also flex its economic muscle in the region by investing in more infrastructure projects in the region, which will also give it strategic as well as diplomatic heft at India’s expense.

Second, a stronger and more confidant Xi can also escalate the border tussle with India. Xi wants to make China the number one global power by replacing USA but finds rising India a stumbling block. India’s growing alliances in Indo-Pacific region (Japan, Australia and Southeast nations such as Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia) and with USA to rebalance China’s aggression is viewed as an obstacle by the Chinese regime.

Xi would like to test India newly acquired confidence, especially with regard to Bhutan. India and Bhutan have a special security arrangement under which India will extend support whenever the Himalayan state faces a security threat.

Doklam may be over but China is not going to digest the humiliation that India posed to it. China may have pulled out of the border tussle due to the upcoming Congress. After the Congress, it can escalate tension with India. India’s Modi-led efforts to gain supremacy in the region will come under serious challenge with a stronger Xi. Modi’s ‘Act East’ policy can face strong resistance from China.

One positive for Modi is that with Xi growing stronger, there will be greater liking for stronger leaders in India. That will ensure he remains popular with the masses.

 economictimes